ISW says Russia uses Estonia's border moves to accuse NATO of escalation

Lawmakers from Russia's ruling party are pointing to reports that Estonia is bolstering its border defences as evidence, they claim, that NATO is the one stoking the conflict with Moscow, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an assessment published on 5 October. In reality, ISW said, it is Russia waging full-scale war on Ukraine and threatening European nations, including with nuclear weapons.

The analysts named United Russia State Duma member Alexander Asafov, who seized on a Financial Times report about Estonian troop movements to accuse the Baltic states of driving the "escalation" with Moscow. A colleague on the Duma's defence committee, Andrey Kolesnik, went further, branding the stationing of Estonian and Finnish forces near Russia's borders "provocative" and warning of unspecified countermeasures, according to ISW.

According to the Financial Times, Estonia has steadily been relocating troops nearer the Russian frontier and acquiring weaponry that can hit targets deep inside Russian territory, in preparation for a possible attack. ISW said Estonia's military leadership does not think Moscow wants all-out war with NATO, but believes Russia is readying for a conflict specifically with the Baltic state, with a limited ground incursion among the scenarios being considered.

President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, insists Moscow is "not preparing" for war with European states, even as he has accused the three Baltic countries of "violating the rights of Russian-speaking populations", ISW noted.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on 6 October that Moscow was aware of reports that NATO is drafting a plan for an attack on Russia and was "keeping its ear to the ground," telling reporters that the government's priority was to prevent threats from its "western neighbours," Interfax reported. He repeated President Putin's remark at the Valdai forum that any attack on Kaliningrad or any other Russian region would draw the same response.

Russian forces have also stepped up attacks on Ukraine's border crossings with Moldova, Romania and Poland in recent weeks, Ukrainian outlet NV reported, citing the ISW assessment. A Russian shell hit a bus parked near the Palanca-Mayaky-Udobne crossing on the Moldovan border on the morning of 5 October, wounding a border guard, NV said. Earlier strikes hit the Orlivka ferry crossing on the Romanian border overnight on 1 September and a petrol station at the Yahodyn crossing on the Polish border on 13 September, damaging the station and several trucks, Volyn customs spokeswoman Valentina Chernysh said. A jet drone struck the Polish border area in Volyn region again on 28 September, damaging a checkpoint building.

Moldova's defence ministry recorded six unauthorised aircraft incursions on 3 October alone, including three missiles and two drones that exploded on the ground across four districts, after Ukraine's air force reported a Russian jet-drone and missile attack on Odesa region, which borders Moldova. Moldova's airspace has been breached at least 20 times since February 2022 and ten times since August, according to the ISW assessment cited by NV.