Ukraine's intelligence warns of Russian sabotage push across EU and NATO

Russia has ordered its intelligence services to escalate hybrid operations, including sabotage, in European Union and NATO member states, Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) said in a Telegram post on Friday, according to Ukrainian outlets NV and 24 Kanal. The operations are meant to undermine aid to Ukraine and weaken the Alliance's capabilities, GUR said, with Russia's GRU military intelligence service and the FSB expected to recruit agents in Europe to carry them out. Likely targets include military facilities, critical infrastructure, communications equipment and, in particular, Starlink satellite-internet terminals based in European countries, GUR said; the agency said it has already warned its European partners of the risk.

European security services separately expect a rise in Russian sabotage in the coming months, Germany's Welt am Sonntag and the UK's Telegraph reported after confidential conversations with security officials, picked up by Polish outlet Onet and Croatian outlet Index.hr. A senior NATO official told the two newspapers the Alliance expects more aggressive communication from Moscow and more hybrid attacks, describing it as a response to strengthened Western defence capabilities; the official said Russia is under the heaviest pressure since the start of the war and throughout President Vladimir Putin's time in office.

German government analysts cite August's failed drone attack on Ukrainian Antonov cargo planes at Leipzig airport, which German authorities blame on Russia's GRU, as an example of the trend, Index.hr reported. Security sources told German tabloid Bild that the attacks are intended mainly for psychological effect, to tell European societies that supporting Ukraine carries risks; the threats reportedly extend to planning attacks on managers at defence-industry companies helping Ukraine, with Germany identified as a key target.

German CDU foreign-policy spokesman Roderich Kiesewetter said he expects a noticeable rise in Russian sabotage and terrorist attacks and that Russia is willing to accept civilian casualties, saying Moscow considers itself at war with NATO, the EU and Germany; he called for a significant increase in military aid to Ukraine, including long-range Taurus cruise missiles. Green party defence committee member Robin Wagener said Russian "state terror" against EU members is meant to weaken Ukraine and European resolve, and said Russia's "shadow fleet" was sailing German waters unimpeded while funding the Kremlin's war chest.

Former Austrian intelligence chief Omar Haijawi-Pirchner said the Kremlin views its relationship with Europe as a "systemic conflict" and expects more drone overflights and attacks on military industry and critical infrastructure, Index.hr reported. Former German intelligence chief Gerhard Schindler said the hybrid attacks aim to weaken support for Ukraine by making the population fear direct military conflict, and that Putin will increase both military pressure on Ukraine and hybrid pressure on the West. Russia's embassy in Berlin rejected what it called "baseless accusations" of Russian involvement in sabotage activities, when asked by Welt am Sonntag.

NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Alexus Grynkewich, said on 24 September the Alliance is stepping up intelligence-sharing in response to a series of suspected Russian-linked sabotage incidents. The same day, Denmark's defence intelligence service said there is a "small but growing risk" Russia could launch a limited military offensive against one or more neighbouring NATO countries in the coming months, and intelligence chiefs in the Czech Republic, Latvia and Sweden had earlier warned Russia could step up sabotage activity in Europe.