Experts simulate Kaliningrad rebellion and Russia-NATO clash in Vilnius

Analysts and former diplomats ran a crisis simulation in Vilnius testing a scenario in which a rebellion breaks out in Russia's Kaliningrad exclave and escalates into direct confrontation between Russia and NATO, Sky News reported, which had exclusive access to the exercise. The war game was organised at ISM University by the Baltic International Security Centre think tank, with experts from the UK and other European countries playing the roles of Russian officials, rebels and NATO member states.

In the scripted scenario, rebels in Kaliningrad kidnap the region's governor and attempt to send tanks across the border into Lithuania, aiming to provoke a clash with NATO and push Moscow into full-scale war with the alliance, the exercise's organisers said.

Co-organiser Edward Lucas, a British analyst on Russia, said the exercise aimed to show weaknesses in the exclave itself, and that scenarios assuming NATO would stay passive are unrealistic. "Scenarios in which NATO stands aside and does nothing while Russian forces enter the Baltic states are nonsense... They have allies here ready to fight from the first minute, and Vladimir Putin knows that very well," Lucas said. He noted that much of the military force once stationed in Kaliningrad has been redeployed to the front line in Ukraine.

Analysts also flagged concerns from Lithuania and Poland about residents of the exclave trying to illegally cross borders to avoid mobilisation, and said the Kremlin had stepped up threats of nuclear weapons use over the exclave in recent weeks.

Former long-time NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu, who oversaw the simulation, said the key lesson was the need for speed. "The situation develops in the blink of an eye, with stimuli coming from different directions, insufficient information and difficult decisions to make," she said, adding that the alliance must be able to draw conclusions quickly, raise force readiness and deter aggression.

At the Valdai Club meeting in early October, Putin warned that Russia would inevitably consider the use of all types of weapons if Kaliningrad were threatened, and Reuters has reported that Moscow earlier handed NATO an unofficial document warning of the risk of nuclear conflict if the exclave were cut off. Separately, intelligence chiefs from the Czech Republic, Latvia and Sweden have warned in the Guardian of planned Russian false-flag provocations and destabilising actions on NATO's eastern flank.