Lithuania and Poland prepare for up to a million refugees in Russian attack scenario
Lithuania's interior minister says Vilnius and Warsaw are preparing reception centres for up to a million refugees in case of a Russian attack on the Baltics.
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Lithuania and Poland have begun drawing up joint plans to handle as many as a million refugees fleeing across their shared border in the event of a Russian attack on the Baltic states, Lithuania's interior minister said on Monday.
Martynas Katelynas said Vilnius and Warsaw had started "intensive work" on cross-border evacuation plans, including alternative border-crossing points and reception centres, after meeting Poland's interior minister, Marcin Kierwiński, at the border.
A reception centre is being prepared in the Lithuanian town of Lazdijai, near the Polish border, to handle the potential influx, Katelynas said. "This border crossing point, which connects us to Poland, is designed to accommodate approximately one million refugees, and perhaps even more," he said.
The plans follow national exercises in Lithuania that tested evacuation procedures, border infrastructure and logistics, with about 20 Polish officials taking part. The drills focused partly on the Suwałki Corridor, the narrow strip of land linking Poland to Lithuania between Russia's Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus, Moscow's ally and the only land route connecting the Baltic states to the rest of NATO's territory.
Poland's foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, said Russia currently lacks the capacity for a major attack on NATO because its forces remain tied down in Ukraine, but he urged allies to stay alert to hybrid attacks and provocations, saying Moscow "could act more aggressively than it already does." Katelynas said Poland and the Baltic states needed to speak "with one voice" against the threat from Russia, describing the two countries as being like "brothers" and "sisters" who support each other.
The disclosure came as NATO said its top military commander in Europe, General Alexus Grynkewich, would set out his plan for how the alliance would defeat Russia in the event of an attack, at a security conference in Warsaw next week, a NATO spokesperson said.
What we know
- 1 outlet · Digi24 Lithuania's interior minister, Martynas Katelynas, said Vilnius and Warsaw are planning for up to a million refugees crossing into Poland if Russia attacks the Baltic states.
- 1 outlet · Digi24 A reception centre is being built in Lazdijai, Lithuania, near the Polish border.
- 1 outlet · Digi24 The plans follow national evacuation exercises in Lithuania involving about 20 Polish officials, focused partly on the Suwałki Corridor.
- 1 outlet · Digi24 Poland's foreign minister says Russia currently lacks the capacity for a major attack on NATO, with its forces tied down in Ukraine.
How each fact is established: Verified checked by an ECTV editorOfficial stated by an official body2+ outlets reported independently by two or more news organisations1 outlet reported by a single news organisation so farUnconfirmed claimed or reportedHow we label facts
Why it matters for Europe
Lithuania and the other Baltic states border Russia and its ally Belarus directly, and the Suwałki Corridor is widely seen as NATO's most exposed point on its eastern flank, the only stretch of land connecting the Baltics to the rest of the alliance. Planning for a refugee exodus on this scale shows how seriously Vilnius and Warsaw are treating the risk of a spillover from the war in Ukraine, even though officials stress no attack is considered imminent.
Concern about hybrid threats has grown in recent months after a series of high-profile incidents, including the discovery of an explosive-laden drone at a German airport. Germany's foreign intelligence chief said separately on Monday that Russia was intensifying what he called a "shadow war" against Germany through sabotage, espionage and cyberattacks, adding to unease across the alliance about actions short of open war.
Sources
Reported by 6 reports from 6 independent outlets in 3 countries.
- Expresso: O que revela a "teoria da vitória”? Comandante supremo da NATO vai apresentar a melhor forma de derrotar a Rússia em caso de ataque
- Știripesurse: Scenariul unui atac rusesc: Comandantul suprem al NATO îşi va prezenta "teoria victoriei"
- Digi24: Lituania avertizează că un milion de refugiați ar putea fugi în Polonia în cazul unui atac al Rusiei
- Notícias ao Minuto: Comandante da NATO vai apresentar "teoria da vitória" sobre Rússia
- HotNews: „Teoria victoriei” în cazul unui atac al Rusiei. Mișcarea pregătită de generalul care conduce NATO
Source balance
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Questions and answers
- What is the Suwałki Corridor?
- It is the narrow strip of land linking Poland to Lithuania, between Russia's Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus, and the only land route connecting the Baltic states to the rest of NATO.
- How many refugees could the plan cover?
- Lithuania's interior minister said the border crossing to Poland is designed to handle about a million refugees, or more, if needed.
- Does Poland think a Russian attack is imminent?
- No. Poland's foreign minister said Russia currently lacks the capacity for a major attack on NATO because its forces are tied down in Ukraine.
This article was written with AI assistance from 6 verified reports and checked under the ECTV editorial policy. Spotted an error? Request a correction.