Russia could use dried Kakhovka Reservoir bed to attempt advance

Russian invasion forces are utilizing the dried-up bed of the Kakhovka Reservoir to reinforce infantry groups along the eastern bank and could attempt to break through toward Zaporizhzhya, according to a report by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) dated September 26. Military analysts and commanders warn that Moscow could take advantage of worsening autumn weather conditions to bypass traditional defensive reconnaissance and monitoring efforts in the sector.

Dmytro Filatov, commander of the 1st Separate Assault Regiment operating in the Zaporizhzhya sector, stated that dense vegetation, high humidity, and fog during the fall and winter make it difficult for Ukraine's Defense Forces to conduct reconnaissance and maintain control over the dried riverbed. Commander Filatov recalled that Russian forces used similar conditions last year to infiltrate Prymorske along the reservoir south of Zaporizhzhya, though Ukrainian defenders subsequently returned the settlement to their control. In the commander's view, Russian troops would not need to deploy additional units to attempt another advance under these weather conditions.

Ukrainian military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces can only reinforce limited positions in southern Prymorske with infantry moving across the reservoir bed, as Ukraine's Defense Forces control the northern part of the Plavni area and a stretch of the M-18 Melitopol-Zaporizhzhya highway south of Prymorske. According to Mashovets, the enemy managed to use the reservoir to infiltrate Malokaterynivka approximately a week prior, while Russian saboteurs are present only in the area of Vysotka in Stepnohirsk and on the northern outskirts of that settlement. Public broadcaster Suspilne previously reported that the reservoir bed became covered with young willows and poplars, turning into a dense forest of sandy patches, marshes, and impassable thickets after Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in June 2023.

In a separate development in the region, local media reported that Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhya during the day, igniting a fire and damaging an infrastructure object. Meanwhile, local officials reported that at least four people were killed and four others were injured across the Zaporizhzhya region and Kyiv in ongoing attacks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russian forces used 277 assault drones of various types since Saturday, including 155 jet-propelled drones, targeting kindergartens, schools, a residential building, a gas station, warehouses, communication objects, and the residence of the Saudi Arabian ambassador. Additionally, the Russian Ministry of Defence claimed it struck data centers belonging to Omega Telekom, Kyivstar, Vodafone, and Datagrup, as well as a logistics center in Odesa.

Amid these operational updates, the partisan movement "Atesh" announced it had obtained internal documents from Russia's 127th Motorized Rifle Division operating in the southern Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya directions. According to the movement, the documents indicate thousands of casualties, missing personnel, over 9,000 wounded, numerous instances of military personnel abandoning their units, and cases of suicide among Russian soldiers. Representatives from the group stated they found significant discrepancies between internal reports and publicly available loss estimates, raising questions about the accuracy of data provided to higher military leadership.