Black Sea ship attacks test NATO's resolve near Romania and Bulgaria

NATO said it would send maritime patrol aircraft, radars and drones to strengthen its eastern flank in the Black Sea after seven cargo ships were struck near member states Romania and Bulgaria in October, according to Reuters reporting picked up by several European outlets.

The pledge did not stop the attacks. A further vessel was hit just outside Romanian waters days later, and naval drones sank a Greek container ship in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone and the Liberian-flagged Contship Jet off the Bulgarian coast as it sailed from Haifa to Constanta on 28 October.

Military analysts said they were almost certain the strikes were Russian; footage of the Contship Jet attack showed a naval drone resembling a Russian model, according to shipping security firm Ambrey. RUSI senior fellow Sidharth Kaushal called it an escalation. Russia has denied targeting its neighbours' shipping and instead blames European states for escalating the war by arming Ukraine; its defence ministry gave no response when asked to comment.

Several of the ships struck in October had been anchored near, or were travelling to or from, a Romanian canal Ukraine uses for exports; one vessel was hit inside Romanian territorial waters and eight others inside Romania's or Bulgaria's exclusive economic zones. Black Sea programme director Iulia Joja, of the Middle East Institute in Washington, said the pattern showed Moscow probing how far it could go without provoking a stronger Western response. A NATO official described the campaign as a serious threat meant to discourage support for Kyiv and said the alliance's defence commitment to its Black Sea members was firm, pointing to a five-year, $40 billion pledge for counter-drone defences.

Romania relies on the Black Sea both for trade and for its offshore Neptun Deep gas field, which is expected to make the country the European Union's biggest gas producer next year; a naval drone came close to the site in August. Romanian officials have accused Moscow of a deliberate campaign against civilian vessels without blaming it for specific strikes, citing the need for forensic proof, while Bulgaria has stopped short of naming Russia but said some attacks appear to work in its favour.

The violence has choked off a key corridor for grain and oil shipments. Ambrey Analytics recorded 317 vessels hit in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov between May and October, more than four times the 74 struck in the previous six months; in October alone Russian forces hit 38 ships against five hit by Ukraine. Russian grain exports through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov fell to 0.3 million tonnes in September, down from 4.74 million tonnes a year earlier, while Ukraine has rerouted its own exports via the Danube and Romania's Sulina Canal since suspending Black Sea port operations in late July.