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Czech president says Trump's diesel deal derailed ceasefire hopes

Petr Pavel said a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire was close until Donald Trump's diesel agreement with Moscow gave Russia room to regroup.

By ECTV Crisis DeskEditor-in-chief: Erik FerdinandPublished 5 independent sources · 98% confidence
Location: Czechia. Open the live Europe Crisis Map

Czech President Petr Pavel said a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine had been "very close" before US President Donald Trump struck a deal allowing Russia to ship diesel fuel to the United States, giving Moscow room to regroup. Pavel made the comments in an interview with the Axel Springer Global Reporters' Network, which includes Politico.

"Everything will now be much more complicated," Pavel said, adding that Western sanctions on Russian oil, oligarchs and other industries had put Moscow "in a difficult position" before the diesel deal gave Russia what he called a breathing pause.

Trump announced the agreement earlier this month; under its terms Russia is to supply the United States with hundreds of thousands of tonnes of diesel fuel. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has criticised the deal, saying it lets Russia kill more people, prolong the war and show less respect for America and the world, according to Pavel.

Pavel said he backed Zelensky's view. "I believe President Zelensky and all of Ukraine are victims of this conflict," he said, adding that Ukraine had neither attacked nor threatened Russia. He stopped short of calling the US move a betrayal, calling it instead a mistake that now gives Russia hope it can sideline Europe and Ukraine and deal directly with Washington, and possibly Beijing, on its own terms.

Pavel, a former NATO general and former chief of the Czech general staff, also said Russia's military losses were unsustainable. He said Russia suffered about 50,000 soldiers killed or wounded in September alone, a rate he said far outpaces Moscow's ability to replace them through recruitment.

He said he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he described as poorly informed and almost obsessively afraid of being killed, is surrounded by a narrow circle that filters the information reaching him. Pavel said Moscow's aim was to make life in Ukraine unbearable and potentially trigger a new wave of refugees towards Europe.

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What we know

  • Czech President Petr Pavel said a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire was close before Trump's diesel deal with Moscow, in an interview with the Axel Springer Global Reporters' Network.
  • Pavel said the deal, under which Russia is to supply the US with diesel fuel, gave Moscow a breathing pause and complicated prospects for peace.
  • He backed Zelensky's criticism of the deal, calling it a mistake rather than a betrayal.
  • Pavel said Russia lost about 50,000 soldiers killed or wounded in September alone.
  • He said Moscow's goal was to make life in Ukraine unbearable and potentially cause a new wave of refugees to Europe.

Why it matters for Europe

Pavel's remarks matter for Europe because the diesel deal he criticised was negotiated by Washington without formal European input, reviving concern in Brussels that the United States could reach a settlement over Ukraine without protecting European interests. His warning of a possible new refugee wave also carries direct consequences for EU member states, several of which have already taken in large numbers of Ukrainians since 2022.

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Reported by 5 reports from 5 independent outlets in 4 countries.

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Questions and answers

What did Czech President Petr Pavel say about ceasefire prospects?
He said a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire had been close until Trump's diesel deal with Moscow gave Russia a breathing pause, making peace efforts more complicated.
What is the diesel deal Pavel criticised?
Under an agreement Trump announced earlier this month, Russia is to supply the United States with hundreds of thousands of tonnes of diesel fuel.
What did Pavel say about Russia's military losses?
He said Russia suffered about 50,000 soldiers killed or wounded in September alone, a rate he said Moscow cannot sustain through recruitment.

This article was written with AI assistance from 5 verified reports and checked under the ECTV editorial policy. Spotted an error? Request a correction.

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