ISW warns Russia may exploit Oleshky truce to rebuild forces

Russia may use the humanitarian ceasefire around occupied Oleshky to rebuild its forces in Kherson Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned in an assessment published on 28 October.

"Russian forces may use the limited ceasefire to reconstitute their forces in Kherson Oblast," ISW analysts wrote. Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov inspected the "Dnepr" grouping of forces on 27 October and met its commander, Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, with Russia's defence ministry saying they discussed drone operations and equipment deliveries. Ukrainian analyst Volodymyr Molchanov told Radio NV that intelligence shows Russia is rapidly reinforcing its forces in Oleshky.

The truce, which took effect at 3am Kyiv time on 27 October and is due to run until 22:59 on 1 November, is meant to allow aid deliveries and let residents leave the town, which Russia has occupied since the early weeks of its 2022 invasion. About 1,700 to 2,000 residents remain, including roughly 50 children, down from a pre-war population of around 24,000, according to White House estimates.

ISW also raised concerns about safeguards for residents who choose to leave for Ukrainian-held territory. Under the evacuation plan, agreed on 23 October by Ukraine's ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets and his Russian counterpart Yana Lantratova, evacuees and the Ukrainian delegation are to travel first to the airport in Russia's Anapa, then fly to Homiel in Belarus aboard a Russian defence ministry military transport plane, with the flight expected on 31 October. The published pages of the agreement do not explain how evacuees would then travel from Belarus to Ukrainian-controlled territory, ISW said.

ISW noted it remains unclear whether Russia will give residents "a legitimate and duress-free choice" to return to Ukraine, warning that a route through Russia could expose evacuees to the kind of filtration process documented by Human Rights Watch among people who fled occupied Mariupol in 2022. In Washington, the Congressional Ukraine Caucus welcomed the ceasefire but raised concern over reports that Russia was preventing some Oleshky residents from evacuating to Ukrainian-held territory, according to RFE/RL.

Lubinets said on 29 October that the truce had held for 54 hours without recorded violations, with mine-clearing under way and an aid delivery expected that day. Across the river in Ukrainian-held Kherson, the regional administration reported no shelling or civilian casualties over the previous day, a rare respite for the city.