Ukraine's intelligence service says Russia is planning for war with Europe by 2045
Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service said Russia is weighing scenarios for direct conflict with Europe by 2045, while waging hybrid attacks now, Mediafax reported.
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Russia is preparing for the possibility of direct military conflict with Europe by 2045, Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) said in an assessment reported by Ukrinform and carried by Mediafax. The service said Moscow's main current goal in Europe is to undermine support for Ukraine while keeping its own risks low.
To do this, Russia relies on tools it can use more effectively than a direct invasion, including sabotage, cyberattacks, influence operations, disinformation and unexplained drone incursions, SZRU said. The service estimated that almost 400 Russian intelligence officers are operating in Europe, testing the limits of other states' tolerance while trying to stay below the threshold that would trigger a collective NATO response.
SZRU said it would be wrong to assume Russia has abandoned the idea of direct confrontation with Europe. Moscow regards this as one of several possible scenarios for military conflict by 2045, with six scenarios tied to northern Europe and others involving Poland and the Baltic states, the service said. It added that Russian leaders need an external enemy to justify their policies and keep control over the population, and that Moscow is trying to undermine European unity and discredit Europe's security architecture.
One option Russia is considering is a controlled regional crisis on NATO's eastern flank, with the Baltic states among the most vulnerable points, according to Russian assessments cited by SZRU. The aim of such a scenario would not necessarily be to defeat NATO militarily, but to show the alliance as unable to respond quickly or defend its members, the service said.
What we know
- Official · Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) said Russia is preparing scenarios for direct military conflict with Europe by 2045, Ukrinform reported.
- Official · Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service SZRU estimated almost 400 Russian intelligence officers are active in Europe, used for sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation and testing NATO's tolerance.
- Official · Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service Six of Russia's possible 2045 war scenarios involve northern Europe; others involve Poland and the Baltic states, the service said.
- Official · Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service SZRU said a possible Russian tactic is a controlled crisis on NATO's eastern flank, with the Baltic states seen as the most vulnerable point.
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Why it matters for Europe
SZRU's assessment, citing the European Council on Foreign Relations, said Russians view Britain, France, Germany, Poland, Finland and the Baltic states as the most hostile countries towards Russia, while 61% of those surveyed said it was time for negotiations and 59% said Russia should step up aggressive action if talks fail. The service said the threat to Europe has already gone beyond the risk of a direct attack, and that Europe should treat Ukraine as a frontline rather than a peripheral concern.
Sources
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Questions and answers
- What is Ukraine's intelligence service warning about?
- SZRU said Russia is preparing scenarios for direct military conflict with Europe by 2045, while using hybrid tactics against the continent now, Ukrinform reported.
- How many Russian intelligence officers are said to be active in Europe?
- SZRU estimated the figure at almost 400, used for sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation.
- Which countries does the assessment name as most at risk?
- SZRU said the Baltic states are seen as one of the most vulnerable points, with scenarios also involving Poland and northern Europe.
This article was written with AI assistance from 1 verified reports and checked under the ECTV editorial policy. Spotted an error? Request a correction.