Europe enters winter with gas stocks at lowest since 2013, IEA warns
The International Energy Agency said European gas storage is at its lowest level in over a decade, raising the risk of price spikes if winter turns colder than expected.
Europe is heading into winter with natural-gas storage at its lowest level since 2013, the International Energy Agency said in a report published on Tuesday, warning that the shortfall increases the region's reliance on global liquefied natural gas supplies to cover seasonal demand peaks.
The IEA's Global Gas Security Review 2026 said European Union storage facilities face the coldest-weather months with reserves lower than at any point in more than a decade, leaving the bloc especially vulnerable if winter proves colder than forecast or if technical faults or other supply disruptions occur.
The report said the near-halt of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, caused by the conflict in the Middle East, sharply cut gas supply from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates between March and October this year. That disruption pushed gas prices in Asia and Europe to their highest levels since the 2022-2023 supply crisis, the agency said.
The IEA forecast that global LNG supply would fall by 3% in 2026, or almost 20 billion cubic metres, while global gas demand would drop by about 1.5%, or roughly 65 billion cubic metres, driven by lower Middle East demand, reduced industrial consumption in Europe and the switch from gas to coal in some Asian power sectors.
Low European storage, combined with limited import capacity in Asian and South American LNG-importing countries, could intensify competition for available cargoes and push up spot-market prices during periods of peak demand, the agency said. It added that Europe might need to significantly increase gas purchases in the summer of 2027 to refill storage for the following winter, which would prolong tension in the global market well into next year.
The IEA also called for Europe to strengthen international cooperation on supply security, even as global gas markets have become more flexible and interconnected over the past decade.
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What we know
- 2+ outlets · Le Figaro, Notícias ao Minuto The IEA said European gas storage is at its lowest level since 2013 heading into this winter.
- 1 outlet · Le Figaro Disrupted LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz cut more than 60 billion cubic metres of supply from Qatar and the UAE between March and October.
- 1 outlet · Le Figaro Global LNG supply is forecast to fall 3% in 2026; global gas demand is forecast to fall about 1.5%.
- 2+ outlets · Le Figaro, Notícias ao Minuto The IEA warned Europe could face intensified competition for LNG cargoes and higher prices during peak demand periods.
How each fact is established: Verified checked by an ECTV editorOfficial stated by an official body2+ outlets reported independently by two or more news organisations1 outlet reported by a single news organisation so farUnconfirmed claimed or reportedHow we label facts
Why it matters for Europe
Low gas storage heading into winter has been a recurring vulnerability for European energy security since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine disrupted pipeline supplies in 2022, and the IEA's warning signals that the region's exposure to global LNG-market shocks, this time from the Middle East rather than Russia, remains a central risk to prices and supply through the heating season.
Sources
Reported by 2 reports from 2 independent outlets in 2 countries.
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Questions and answers
- Why are European gas stocks low?
- The IEA says reduced LNG supply, particularly disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz linked to the Middle East conflict, has left European storage at its lowest level since 2013.
- What risk does this create?
- The agency warned that low storage leaves Europe especially vulnerable to price spikes if winter is colder than expected or supply is disrupted further.
- Could this affect next year too?
- Yes. The IEA said Europe may need to buy heavily in summer 2027 to refill storage, prolonging market tension into much of next year.
This article was written with AI assistance from 2 verified reports and checked under the ECTV editorial policy. Spotted an error? Request a correction.