NATO allies fear Trump could step up pressure if Republicans lose midterms
Politico reports NATO diplomats are bracing for Donald Trump to intensify attacks on the alliance if Republicans lose Tuesday's US midterm elections.
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NATO allies are preparing for Donald Trump to intensify his criticism of the alliance if Republicans lose control of Congress in Tuesday's US midterm elections, five NATO diplomats told Politico.
The diplomats said that if Democrats curb Trump's room for manoeuvre at home, he could try to secure his legacy in foreign policy instead, where he has wider authority as commander-in-chief. Three of them said this could include pulling several thousand more US troops out of Europe.
"Presidents who lose political influence typically combine displays of frustration with adventurism in foreign policy," a senior European defence official told Politico, adding that attacks on NATO "seem to be a constant part of Trump's worldview." One NATO diplomat said Trump "could be very angry" and, if so, "will be very tough."
The concerns centre on a review of the US military presence in Europe due to be completed in December. Diplomats said Trump could widen any withdrawal to energise his support base, or make the continued US presence conditional on European governments accepting a Washington-backed peace deal for Ukraine. Former NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu warned that the troop review, Ukraine and Europe's security order could all become "part of a much bigger deal" between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Politico's sources said Trump could also cut US contributions to NATO's common budget, restrict the PURL programme through which allies buy American weapons for Ukraine, and pursue closer ties with Moscow. Not every ally shares the alarm: Montenegro's defence minister, Dragan Krapović, said allies had heard such speculation before "and it hasn't happened yet."
A White House spokesperson, Olivia Wales, rejected the criticism, saying Trump "has done more for the alliance than anyone else", and pointed to allies' pledge to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 and an expanded US military presence in Greenland. A heavy Republican defeat could also trigger upheaval at the Pentagon, where Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has become unpopular in Congress; diplomats said his possible departure could delay any decision on European troop numbers by weeks or months.
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What we know
- 2+ outlets · Știrile ProTV, Observator News +4 NATO diplomats told Politico they fear Trump will intensify pressure on the alliance if Republicans lose the 3 November US midterm elections.
- 1 outlet · Polsat News, Interfax +1 Possible steps cited include withdrawing more US troops from Europe, cutting NATO budget contributions and restricting the PURL weapons-purchase programme for Ukraine.
- 1 outlet · Interfax A US troop-presence review in Europe is due to be completed in December.
- Official · White House The White House rejected the criticism, citing allies' pledge to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035.
How each fact is established: Verified checked by an ECTV editorOfficial stated by an official body2+ outlets reported independently by two or more news organisations1 outlet reported by a single news organisation so farUnconfirmed claimed or reportedHow we label facts
Why it matters for Europe
The concerns follow Washington's recent decision to cut Starlink satellite services for Ukraine and a renewed rapprochement between Trump and Putin, developments that have already unsettled European capitals. Any reduction in US troop numbers or weapons funding would directly affect European security planning and Kyiv's ability to keep fighting, at a time when Politico's sources say Moscow has stepped up against Europe.
Sources
Reported by 17 reports from 17 independent outlets in 8 countries.
- Știripesurse: Europa se uită cu groază spre alegerile din SUA: Donald Trump se va răcori puternic împotriva NATO, dacă republicanii pierd
- Știrile ProTV: NATO se pregătește pentru cel mai negru scenariu după alegerile din SUA. De ce se tem aliații europeni - POLITICO
- Observator News: Politico: Aliaţii NATO se tem că Trump va viza alianţa dacă republicanii pierd alegerile
- Mediafax: POLITICO: Îngrijorări în NATO. Aliații se tem că Trump va intensifica atacurile la adresa alianței în cazul unei înfrângeri la alegerile de la jumătatea mandatului
- UNIAN: Трамп у разі поразки на виборах може завдати нищівного удару по НАТО, - Politico
Source balance
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Intelligence file
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Confidence and impact scores, 11 more sources, the full situation report and the event timeline.
Questions and answers
- Why are NATO allies worried about the US midterm elections?
- Diplomats fear a Republican defeat could push Trump to intensify pressure on NATO instead of facing limits at home, Politico reported.
- What steps could Trump take?
- Sources cited possible troop withdrawals from Europe, cuts to NATO funding, and limits on the PURL arms programme for Ukraine.
- When is the review of US forces in Europe due?
- It is expected to be completed in December, according to Politico's sources.
This article was written with AI assistance from 16 verified reports and checked under the ECTV editorial policy. Spotted an error? Request a correction.